The US weekend at COTA showed once again that Formula 1 racing is not just about speed. Max Verstappen placed his title fight back in the limelight with 33 maximum points. But the main lesson of the Grand Prix is not about him: it was a race in which a sudden 180-degree turn of the wind, a brilliant strategic gamble by Ferrari and the physics of tyre management combined to undermine Norris' chances.
Wind: the invisible race leader
Since qualifying, the wind at COTA turned completely. A detail, but one that changed the whole dynamic. Whereas teams based their setups on one wind direction, during the race, tailwinds suddenly appeared in the slow corners. Tailwind increases the demand for mechanical grip - exactly where the soft tyre excels and the hard tyre falls short. Ferrari understood this and put Leclerc on softs. That choice proved crucial.
Ferrari's gamble and why McLaren stranded
Charles Leclerc started from the second row of the grid on softs with the intention of taking the lead with better traction and clean air. The start worked: Leclerc gained superior traction and pushed past Norris. For McLaren, there were two problems at once: Norris was stuck behind a Ferrari that held reason ahead of him, while Verstappen ran away undisturbed. By the end of the opening lap, Verstappen was already 1.4 seconds ahead.
More importantly, the hard tyre proved too slow on this track and with that wind. A one-stop strategy remained necessary, however, as tyre temperatures and casing stress made it impossible to push hard enough that an extra pit stop paid off. That forced many drivers into long opening stints on mediums, making a combination of medium and soft inevitable - and McLaren was thus stuck with a long stint.
Norris' battle: racecraft against tyre physiology
Norris showed why he is among the best in the field. He had to fight in dirty air and drain his tyres in the attempt to follow and pass Leclerc. It was only on lap 21 that he passed, but Verstappen was now almost 11 seconds ahead. During the second stint, Norris had to pass Leclerc again - Leclerc had stopped earlier and got back ahead in time.
At the heart of Norris' malaise was not a lack of will or speed, but thermals: the softs he was given after his stop had already been used for six laps 'qualified' and the top layer overheated as soon as he got close to a predecessor. Overheating carcass reduces grip dramatically. With 10 laps to go, Norris reported over the radio that he had lost his tyres. His engineer Will Joseph kept his cool and advised throttle down to lower carcass temperature - a clever intervention that allowed Norris to attack later anyway.
A missed opportunity and lessons for McLaren
Norris eventually overtook Leclerc in a battle of fine steering sense and daring: five laps before the end an overtaking move into Turn 1, later a crucial pass via the dirty inside line into Turn 12. But it was not enough to threaten Verstappen. The conclusion is sharp: McLaren could have won the race, but external factors and an unfortunate strategic position made that impossible.
In practical terms, this means McLaren needs to learn two things: better anticipation of changing weather and wind conditions, and even more stringent tyre management in long stints. In addition, Oscar Piastri's weekend shows another style issue: on low-grip circuits, he is structurally two tenths behind Norris, something the team needs to work on.
In the end, Verstappen remains cool: he rates his title chances at '50/50′. For McLaren, it is clear: speed alone is no longer enough. Tactics, tyre physics and the ability to predict invisible factors such as wind will determine the outcome.
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