The current penalty list for 2025 shows a clear line of tension in Formula 1. Not only do young drivers rank remarkably high, but expiry dates and the spread of offences determine who could really be in trouble. With the precedent of Kevin Magnussen suffering a suspension in 2024 at 12 points, one thing is clear: being close to 12 points is not a statistic, but an operational risk zone for drivers and teams.
Top contenders: Bearman and Verstappen under pressure
Ollie Bearman is the closest to a suspension with 10 penalty points. His points are a mix of incidents: Brazilian GP 2024 (2), Monaco 2025 (2), British GP 2025 (4) and Italian GP 2025 (2). The expiry dates vary (from November 2025 to September 2026), leaving Bearman driving under a permanent shadow for the rest of the season. Max Verstappen follows with 9 points, spread over several 2024 and 2025 incidents, including a recent three-pointer in Spain (expires 1 June 2026). For Verstappen, that means any new penalty could quickly push him towards a mandatory absence.
Young riders and the trap of rapid accumulation
The list also shows that many younger drivers - Bearman, Antonelli, Colapinto, and Lawson - accumulated points disproportionately often. This points to two things: lack of experience in complex situations and a higher likelihood of risky behaviour in on-track battles. Kimi Antonelli has five; Franco Colapinto and Alex Albon four. Liam Lawson (6) and Oscar Piastri (6) show that even drivers at competitive teams can quickly get into the danger zone.
Expiry dates form tactical windows
A crucial factor in practice is when points expire. Many 2024 offences expire in late 2025 or early 2026, which means that some drivers could become relatively safe in the autumn without additional adjustments to their driving style. At the same time, there are points with long durations until the middle or end of 2026. For teams, this is relevant: a driver with a mix of short- and long-term points remains unreliable for longer from a management point of view. Bearman is exemplary here: some points disappear quickly, others remain present until late 2026.
Team risk and the management of driving behaviour
Teams must now make twofold choices. First, behavioural management: racing must remain aggressive, but with less chance of appointable offences. Second, strategists must take into account possible future suspensions that could hurt team results and constructor points. Haas, with Bearman at 10, and Red Bull, with Verstappen at 9, face the most immediate operational bottlenecks.
Conclusion: preventive action is the best strategy
The 2025 penalty points list reads like a warning light for drivers and teams. Existing precedent (Magnussen in 2024) makes it clear that 12 points need not be far off. The combination of high points numbers among young drivers, significant expiry dates spread over two seasons, and some top drivers near the limit, means that discipline on the track and conscious risk management are essential from now on. Whoever organises this best will not only avoid individual suspensions, but also protect the team's chances for the remaining season.
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