Max Verstappen did not just win in Austin. He reclaimed the momentum. With two poles and two wins - maximum score for the weekend - he left a clear message: he is back in contention and partly determining his own fate. That does not automatically mean he is the favourite. It does mean you would be wise to bet on him.
Momentum as an indispensable asset
At the heart of the discussion is not maths, but form and development. Verstappen is 40 points behind championship leader Oscar Piastri, and Lando Norris follows on 14 points. That deficit does not make Verstappen the arithmetic favourite. But as Scott Mitchell-Malm points out, it's all about when a driver finds his top form and whether his team goes with him. Verstappen is slowly creeping back into the picture and Red Bull has effectively bounced back after the summer break. That is exactly the combination that can turn around a deficit.
Red Bull's recovery and the importance of developments
Scott rightly points to Red Bull's effectiveness in their upgrade programme. A driver is only as good as the car he gets. Verstappen now again has a consistently strong car under him. In such a situation, the dynamic changes: it is no longer purely about points, but about who can dominate at crucial moments. Austin was such a crucial moment. If Red Bull does not lose quality again, Verstappen will be the man most likely to grab those moments from now on.
McLaren needs to reinvent itself
Jon Noble brings the other side: McLaren are under pressure. They have enjoyed a period of advantage this year, but recent races show that margin has become thin. McLaren needs to do two things: technically recover why the car lost advantages and internally distance itself from personal rivalries that are distracting. Andrea Stella's earlier comments about Verstappen seem to have sounded the alarm in retrospect. If McLaren do not do a thorough reset soon, they will be amazed at how quickly an initial lead evaporates.
Piastri under pressure - and the need for flawless rounds
Gary Anderson underlines Piastri's vulnerability: he still led the championship despite a weak weekend, but the margin is shrinking and competition is increasing. The finale of the season brings more competitive cars into the field, making big scores more difficult. Piastri needs to perform flawlessly right away in Mexico and give away as few points as possible. That is easier said than done, especially now that Verstappen has a car that wins when it counts.
The test for McLaren's direction and promises
Josh Suttill brings up the morale-political aspect. Zak Brown said earlier that he remains committed to his driver duo regardless of Verstappen's availability. If Verstappen actually pulls off this title, that statement will be a painful test for McLaren. The question is not just technical or sporting; it is also strategic. McLaren must ask itself whether loyalty and long contracts are enough to pull a project to the absolute top.
Conclusion: Verstappen is not yet a mathematical favourite. But he has the momentum, the form and a team that is fighting back. That makes him the smart bet for those who dare to take risks. McLaren and Piastri still have time, but need to act fast: technical repair, internal management and flawless racing. Otherwise, as Suttill suggests, Verstappen could provide an unconventional but devastatingly effective comeback even before Abu Dhabi.
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