State and reality
On paper, Oscar Piastri has the best starting position. He is 40 points ahead of Max Verstappen. Lando Norris follows on 14 points from Piastri. That gives McLaren the opportunity to decide the title itself.
What McLaren does control
Team principal Andrea Stella says the outcome of the season is in McLarens hands. He refers to circuits and trends since Baku and stresses that the team must continue to maximise opportunities. According to him, things went wrong in Baku and the United States, among others, because McLaren did not perform optimally.
That attitude is justified. McLaren has often let down a fast car because of team or driver mistakes. Yet the potential remains clear: if McLaren runs better weekends, it is still in a good position.
The form factor
But form tells a different story from the standings. Verstappen has built a lot of momentum. In the past four race weekends, he gained 64 points on Piastri. That makes him dangerous in the closing stages of the championship.
Verstappen says the opportunity is definitely there now. Red Bull and he improved the car after the summer break. Since then, they have performed almost flawlessly, something McLaren has not consistently managed.
What Verstappen benefits from
Verstappen got help from bad luck at McLaren. Examples include Norris dropping out at Zandvoort due to an engine problem, Piastri crashing in Baku and the incident that eliminated both McLarens in Austin in the sprint. As a result, Verstappen has scored as many points as Piastri and Norris combined since the summer break.
Above all, Verstappen has experience of pressure. He and Red Bull know how to handle a title fight. Piastri and Norris are now really experiencing for the first time what is involved in a drivers' championship. That experience works in Verstappen's favour.
The arithmetic
There are still five grands prix and two sprints to go. That means 141 points to distribute. If Verstappen wins every race and sprint, he will get a maximum of 141 points. But if Piastri finishes second in all grands prix and also second in both sprints, the maximum win difference for Verstappen is only 37 points. So Verstappen is not yet fully in control of his own destiny.
- If Norris consistently beats Piastri, it increases Verstappens chances. By pushing Piastri to place three each time, Verstappens theoretical gains grow by 3 points per grand prix and 1 point per sprint.
- In this way, the extra swing could add up to 17 points. Together with the aforementioned 37 points, Verstappen can thus make up 54 points, enough to become champion.
McLarens tough choice
McLaren does not want to force Norris to help Piastri. The team wants both drivers to race freely. Decisions on team orders McLaren wants to make only on the basis of hard data. Stella says the team wants to use the remaining races to widen the gap with Verstappen.
That is understandable. But as long as McLaren makes mistakes and the two drivers cost each other points, Verstappen remains a real threat.
Who is in control?
The answer depends on what you consider more important: current points position, form, psychological pressure or experience. Piastri has the most points and is therefore technically closest to the title. Verstappen has momentum and experience on his side. That makes him dangerous.
In short: McLaren is in control as long as it does not make any new mistakes. But Verstappen can still take the championship if the McLarens continue to handicap each other and Red Bull maintains its strong form.
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