Introduction: four races left, three contenders
With four laps to go, 2025 is a rare three-pointer in the title race. Max Verstappen unexpectedly came back into the picture. Five races after Zandvoort, his deficit was still 104 points. It has since been reduced to 36 points. McLaren leads the list with Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri. Their battle between them is the main issue. That makes this denouement unpredictable.
A misstep could mean the end of a comeback
Underdogs often build momentum. They ride relaxed and dare to take risks. That helps in the hunt for the lead. Verstappen has fallen into that role in 2025, strange as that may sound given his titles. But one mistake can destroy everything.
A famous example is Heinz-Harald Frentzen in 1999. He drove the season of his life. After a string of good results, he was suddenly within reach of the leaders. On the Nürburgring weekend, everything still seemed possible.
Then his car stalled with ‘‘electrical problems’’. It later emerged that Frentzen had not switched off an anti-stall system after a pit stop. It was human error. The DNF made his chances of winning the title almost impossible. The short lesson: when you have no margin for error as an underdog, one incident kills you.
Mutual struggle can weaken a team
Historic three-team duels teach the same thing. When two teammates take points from each other too often, the third continues to benefit. That happened in 1986 and 2007.
In 1986, Nigel Mansell and Nelson Piquet had a lot of power inside Williams. Yet Alain Prost seized his chance when Williams broke through bad luck. In 2007, Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton were each other's biggest competitors. Kimi Räikkönen took advantage and took the title.
At McLaren this year, Norris and Piastri are very close. Statistics show how narrow their mutual margin is. That balance makes it difficult for McLaren to protect one clear title contender. And that opens the door for Verstappen.
A teammate can actually be decisive
Not all teammates work against you. Sometimes they actively help a leader. That can be decisive in the denouement.
In 2007, Felipe Massa played exactly that role. He helped Kimi Räikkönen by staying behind him to manage points. In 2003, Rubens Barrichello helped, sometimes unintentionally, Michael Schumacher by keeping rivals away from him in crucial races.
In 2025, Yuki Tsunoda is not structurally in that role. He can sometimes support Verstappen on the track, but he does not have the level to consistently sacrifice strategies. If one McLaren driver falls, the other will naturally be able to help that team. McLaren has a culture that encourages cooperation, so a counted-out teammate can take on the role of helper.
It remains exciting until the last round
Three-pitch battles often make for unpredictable finals. Teams and drivers get nervous. This leads to mistakes or successive incidents.
In Adelaide 1986, fate turned in a few laps. A puncture and a reactive pit stop changed the outcome. In 2007, incidents and bad luck by Hamilton and others caused last-minute shifts that kept Räikkönen alive. In 2010, defensive play between the leaders opened up a chance for Sebastian Vettel to win.
For Verstappen, that is hopeful. As long as he stays in contention and McLaren remains hesitant, he could strike in the closing stages. Even with a big gap, surprises are still possible in these situations.
Practical lessons for the remaining races
- Drive clean and reliable. A DNF kills those who need to overtake.
- Manage internal relationships. One dominant teammate is useful.
- Use teammates strategically. A helper can be crucial in the final.
- Stay in the game. Small chances at the end can be decisive.
With four races to go, the denouement promises to remain exciting. Verstappen, Norris and Piastri each have a story to tell. A mistake or a smart move could determine the title change. That makes the final stage this season extra attractive to follow.
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